Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 13 October 2023

“Resilience, meaning you can absorb a mistake. Optionality, an open mind. You need to recognise that there are certain things you don’t know. You need to think differently. Finally, agility; the ability to move quickly, and just to be clear, this is not just for investing.” - Mohamed El-Erian on the three qualities investors need the most, Financial Times (10 October 2023)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Mark Your Diary! Portfolio Construction Forum Research Symposium (Thur 23 Nov 2023, Sydney) - Exploring contemporary investment research issues. With an emphasis on peer discussion and debate, Research Symposium is essential for senior practitioners responsible for researching and selecting investment solutions for inclusion on APLs, models and multi-manager portfolios.

Markets

The Bank of Japan’s seductive widow-maker trade
Could Japan become the world’s next great growth story? Warren Buffett seems to think so and the IMF expects the Japanese economy to grow by 1.4% in 2023. But the Japanese economy could also be a ticking time bomb.
Kenneth Rogoff | Harvard University | Read

Strategies | Markets

Thinking Differently: Don’t ignore the future that has already happened
Focussing on what we know about the world we live in and figuring out what it might mean for investing is much less glamourous and newsworthy than the prediction game, but it’s potentially more rewarding.
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Don’t sit on the sidelines, invest in Global Corporate Bonds
Investment-grade corporate bonds can improve portfolio risk-adjusted returns. A focus on the highest quality global corporate bonds will provide opportunities for investors to capture future income, as well as add a defensive anchor within portfolios.
Jeremy Cunningham, Capital Group | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you could predict one thing, make it equity earnings surprise
Brokers hire a great many analysts to write and publish detailed analysis on corporate earnings forecasts. It’s right to focus on earnings, but the level of delivered growth is less important than the surprise in growth (positive or negative).
Ram Rasaratnam, AXA Investment Managers | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do one thing, rebalance equities with cash generators
As markets become narrow and expensive, core, growth and quality portfolios are converging. This presents risks for many portfolios but a great opportunity for valuation-focused investors.
Warryn Robertson, Lazard Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Finology | Philosophy

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Strategies | Finology | Philosophy

Laying Chicago economics to rest
There is good reason to think that the economic orthodoxy of the past 50 years has one foot in the grave. The question is whether the mainstream economics profession has gotten the memo yet!
Antara Haldar, University of Cambridge | Read

Markets | Philosophy

Q&A: Outperforming markets given history rhymes not repeats
The fact that structural changes do exist and that historical data are often of limited relevance presents a major opportunity for investors seeking to outperform others.
Woody Brock, SED | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets

Thinking Differently: Hamlet and the October Effect
The three biggest crashes in US stock markets occurred in October and there have been other significant October falls over the past 100 years. While common sense suggests the “October Effect” is nothing more than market folklore, should it be ignored?
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, capture energy transition via infrastructure
The transition a net zero emission economy offers risks and opportunities for investors. Infrastructure is a simple way to benefit from the transition to a net zero emission economy and represents a multi-decade growth opportunity.
Gerald Stack, Magellan Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Global private debt is a core portfolio allocation
Yield premium over comparable liquid markets, control, upfront economics and low historical volatility and default rates make private credit an asset class to consider for a core allocation in investors’ portfolios.
Teiki Benveniste, Ares Australia Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets | Finology | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

When investing, a youthful mindset is everything
The young are better able to navigate VUCA owing to their natural growth and learning mindset. In an environment where investors can do anything, just not everything, we can all benefit from adopting a youth mindset.
Tassos Stassopoulos, Trinetra Investment Management | 0.25 CE | Listen, Watch

Markets

How global currencies end
Whether the dollar retains its global role will hinge on whether the US brings its soaring debts under control, avoids another unproductive debt-ceiling showdown, and gets its economic and political act together more generally.
Barry Eichengreen, University of California | Read

Strategies | Markets | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Three global risks affect everything – you must do something(s)!
Three gigantic, global, interconnected risks have the potential to upend the world as we know it. Investors who understand these will be better positioned to successfully navigate the uncertainty plaguing our world.
Vikram Mansharamani, Forum Visting Fellow | 0.75 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets

Crockpot: Chinese equities are too big a market to ignore
Owning or not owning 4% of the global equity market is not going to make or break any portfolio. As for being too big to ignore? It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Investing | Finology | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, use behavioural analysis in manager selection
In the same way that Moneyball has swept every professional sport, data science is bringing greater transparency to portfolio managers’ decision-making skill. To select managers capable of outperforming, behavioural analysis is crucial.
Clare Flynn Levy and Greg Dean | 0.50 CE | Read, Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, increase your exposure to private markets
Opinions about private markets are often not rooted in facts, due in part to the fact that data on private markets has been scarce. But data is available and it debunks some of the common misconceptions about private markets.
Mario Giannini, Hamilton Lane | 0.50 CE | Read, Listen, Watch

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