The subject at hand being so difficult, it is no surprise that almost all commentators can find some logical justification for any theory of currencies they may hold.

The draft US/EU trade agreement just concluded sets a 15% tariff on most European exports to the US against a 0% reciprocal tariff. The match goes to Trump, 15 to nil.

Markets seem to have grown less reactive to US President Trump's unpredictable actions. But despite recent market calm, ongoing trade wars, economic disruption from Trump’s policies, and geopolitical tensions warrant a cautious investment strategy.

This paper provides a great summary of the role played by asset consultants and the existing literature on asset consulting (including why they're fired).

This paper examines the impact of a key feature of competitive markets on moral behaviour - the possibility that a competitor might step in and conclude the deal if a conscientious market actor forgoes a profitable business opportunity for ethical reasons.

The steady rise of stablecoins is setting the stage for the next financial meltdown. The Federal Reserve could defuse the time bomb by issuing a digital wallet, the mother of all stablecoins.

Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair does not end until May 2026. But US President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to name the next chair early in an effort to undermine Powell.

The 1973 Yom Kippur War and Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979 led to a massive spike in oil prices that fuelled severe stagflation. This time is likely to be different for many reasons.

While the impact of US trade tariffs will be far less than investors fear, broad portfolio diversification is paramount and indexed strategies are no longer appropriate.

In an industry saturated with greenwashing, woke-washing, whitewashing, and other appeals to our ethical sensibilities, moral courage is a critical virtue for upholding high ethical standards and building societal trust.

The recent surge in government bond yields raises a critical question - should corporations lock in debt at current interest rates before they rise further?

There is growing public alarm about how generative AI might obliterate industries and professions. What's often overlooked is that the first major victim will undoubtedly be the technology sector itself.

Private market assets can complement traditional equity and fixed income allocations, helping investors participate in the upside of favourable equity markets while mitigating drawdowns in difficult ones.

When economists celebrate the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations next year, President Trump's mercantilism will constitute an incongruous backdrop.

I have significantly rethought the likely implications of the Trump administration's impact on the world's economies and polities. I am more optimistic.

Private equity is promoted as providing returns several per cent higher than investing in public equity markets. These two papers reveal the true returns that private equity delivers to investors, identifying the real winners (the managers).

Ethical standards and codes serve as guiding principles for professionals - but the application is rarely straightforward. This paper reviews recent literature on moral judgment and the behavioural implications.

With President Trump's tariff war in full swing, attention is turning to the "Mar-a-Lago Accord", a plan to weaken the dollar. Clever as it might be, but it is based on a flawed diagnosis.

Even if Mickey Mouse were president, the US would still be on the way to 4% growth, because US private-sector innovation promises to offset bad policies and erratic policymaking.

While some people argue that US trade tariffs will boost the domestic economy, history shows that such policies will more likely reduce international trade and increase unemployment around the world.

I have long argued the world is in the process of bifurcating into two economic ecosystems, one led by America and the other by China. As is now obvious to the world, the split is accelerating.

The supply-chain disruptions during the Covid pandemic look almost quaint compared to the fundamental reordering of global trade now underway and which threatens a prolonged period of stagflation.

This Research Spotlight focuses on the Talaria Global Equity strategy, a value-biased global equities exposure executed through the use of exchange traded options.

In the space of little more than two months, Trump has turned the world inside out. The Trump shock is the functional equivalent of a full-blown crisis. Concerns over the global economic forecast seem almost trivial.

This narrative has been doing the rounds for a while and - in terms of unlisted property at least - has been fairly close to the mark. However, going forward, it has become a really unhelpful idea.

If there is one thing those in the finance industry should understand, it is how markets function. The starting point is the Efficient Market Hypothesis - however EMH is amazingly poorly understood.

According to the latest generation of behavioural finance theory, individuals seek life wellbeing (underpinned by financial wellbeing) which additionally incorporates non-financial factors.

If MAGA ultimately helps everyone break their dependency on the US consumer, the rest of the world will have much to thank Trump for. The only losers will be ordinary Americans.

For the past 30 years, a revolution has been underway in how investment markets and economies should be viewed and understood. This Backgrounder introduces the key elements of this revolution – termed Complexity Economics – and explains the implications for understanding investment market behaviour and constructing portfolios.

The new US administration could upend assumptions about global growth and markets for years to come. Investors need to prepare portfolios now for a new investing era.

Near- and medium-term gaps in current market narratives and perceptions lead to a simple conclusion - it is time for caution.

Extraordinary and interrelated developments are unfolding in politics, geopolitics and deep tech innovation. Trump's disruptive approach has enormous implications for global markets.

By combining AI, alternative data sets, and human expertise, investors can identify new themes, access untapped markets, and capitalise on market dislocations.

As inflation has re-emerged, interest rates have risen and asset prices have levelled off and even declined, a withdrawal of capital from commercial real estate lending markets is creating a new opportunity to be greedy when others are fearful.

For the last decade, technology companies have been rallying. But quality investing is more than just tech. Defensive equity growth opportunities can fill a defensive gap in portfolios.

The heightened VUCA macro environment, coupled with an unprecedented set of industry and government catalysts, is creating a generational investment opportunity for infrastructure.

As the private credit sector grows, it faces increasing media scrutiny, making a manager's approach to disclosure of default rate and causes an increasingly important consideration for investors.

The US (and soon rest of world) hasn't seen this much demand for power since World War 2. While this introduces investment possibilities for many segments, listed infrastructure is disproportionately well-placed to fill this gap.

Investors should pivot exposure to the growing number of high quality, mid-cap companies that have reinvested to develop market-leading products with global opportunities and long runways for growth.

At current valuations, high quality core bonds offer attractive yields relative to cash, as well as the prospect of higher and less volatile returns than equities over the next five years.

Direct lending has become the fastest-growing segment within private credit offering the opportunity for premium yields that are often unavailable in the public credit markets.

As investors chased Mag7, a wide valuation gap opened up. Investors need a fresh growth narrative. TICKing off four markets - China, India, Korea, and Taiwan - is the most efficient starting point and opportunities abound.

The lower coverage of SMID Caps means greater opportunity to exploit market mispricing relative to large caps.

In mid-market Australian private equity, where inefficiencies and hands-on value creation thrive, outsized returns are being captured beyond the public eye.

Understanding the drivers of and outlook for the markets is essential to multi-asset, multi-manager investing (MAMMI). However, MAMMI is full of traps. As the saying goes "It's simple, it's just not easy!".

As we progress through the Trumpification of markets, the political and information prism through which we view the world will help us mind the gap(s) between market perception and investing reality.

Our end of day session revealed delegates' views on which of the high conviction theses they'd heard through the day they intended to investigate further or implement in practice.

Our post-program Implementation Zoominar led by consulting firm, InvestSense, drew together the key takeouts from Markets Summit 2025 and the practical implications for client portfolios, turning the insights from Markets Summit 2025 into actions.

Our Markets Summit program kicks off with a video retrospective of the key events of the prior year...

Equity investors should set aside their fears of a second Trump presidency and focus instead on the structural opportunities presented by decarbonisation.

With monetary policy easing set to provide an additional tailwind for smaller companies, now is the time for practitioners to consider increasing global small caps exposure in portfolios.

Trump 2.0 is starting where Trump 1.0 ended – with distortions, convoluted logic, and the related risk of major policy blunders.

The economic damage Trump could cause will be moderate, according to Woody Brock. His bigger concern is what could go wrong with foreign policy under Trump because, in Woody's view, the probability of a global war is higher than it has been in decades.

The 2024 US election result could potentially upend assumptions about global growth and markets in the years ahead. The next four years could be Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) on steroids!

Irrational markets are easy to beat? You would think so. But, to quote Yogi Berra, "In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they're different."

2024 was a year of confusing, inspiring, depressing, and energising developments on many fronts. It’s in the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty that I offer you this year’s set of global developments to watch over the next five years.

What impact will the next US administration have on economic growth and inflation? The answer is not yet clear, because while some of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies would boost growth and reduce inflation over time, others will have the opposite effect.