In a world where Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity are ever-present and ever-changing, the act of investing is about assessing probabilities and payoffs, not trying to predict what will happen.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation New Zealand subscriber only area...
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Australian subscriber only area...
The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...
Highlight our upcoming live CE programs, and all of the complimentary on-demand CE-accredited resources published over recent months.
Looking ahead, eight risks to global GDP growth stand out. Investors will need to rethink their investment and allocation strategies to navigate an era defined by uncertainty and uneven growth.
Supporters often say that a businessman like Trump or Musk will know how to put America's fiscal house in order. But the smart money says they have no idea what they are doing.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
The economy played a critical role in the 2024 presidential race, creating the conditions not only for Donald Trump to trounce Kamala Harris and for the Republicans to gain control of the Senate and House but possibly also for a counter-elite to usher in a new power structure.
Research over the last 50+ years has questioned the ability of active fund managers to add value consistently over time. These two papers offer new methods to improve our ability to pick future winners and losers.
History is rhyming again. With the return of President-elect Donald Trump and a Republican Congress, the baseline supply chain policies that investors will have to deal with look a lot like those applied in the 2016 to 2020 period.
Since Plato's Republic, philosophers have known how demagogues and aspiring tyrants win democratic elections. The process is straightforward, and we have now just watched it play out.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
In 2014, Thomas Piketty's book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, reshaped the inequality debate. However his central argument – that capitalism inevitably leads to growing inequality – falls apart when looking at cross-country inequality.
Ethical blindness is one answer to the question "Why do good people do bad things?" Together, these two papers strongly reinforce the idea that ethical practice requires that we regularly hit the brakes and check our ethical blind spots.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
At one extreme, the whole investment decision-making process could be turned over to AI - at the other, it can just be used in data collection. These two papers capture the challenges of integrating AI into funds management and financial advice processes.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
With polls suggesting that Kamala Harris has at least a 50% chance of winning next month's US presidential election, questions about her economic-policy agenda have come to the fore.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
It seems plausible. A lack of research means inefficient pricing and lots of opportunities to find bargains, and inefficient markets are full of less skilled investors. Alpha is lying around just waiting to be collected.
Manufacturing reshoring by global multinationals is key to economic development in frontier and emerging markets. Understanding the shifting dynamics can be critical to investment decision-making at both the country and sector level.
The financial services industry has long embraced the potential of AI-based systems including robo-advice. These two papers review the psychological and relational dynamics that arise from "algorithm aversion".
So far, financial markets have remained largely indifferent to the upcoming November US presidential election. In my view, the odds of a Democratic sweep are increasing, and investors would be wise to pay attention.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Short breaks can improve decision-making and overall performance. A 2023 study found that holidays "meaningfully improve" the accuracy of equity analysts' earnings forecasts.
The widespread adoption of managed account solutions has shown a seismic shift in most investment advisers believing it is too risky to entrust just one active investment manager with building a diversified portfolio for clients.
Wetware-powered AI is changing the way we manage risk and uncertainty, including in financial markets. Its rise will also profoundly change how humans think about the nature of reality — in finance and more generally.
Read any book on Complexity Science and the first example of a Complex Adaptive System is the economy and financial markets. Complex systems exhibit "emergence" which means that the whole is always more than the sum of its parts.
Are supply chains fixed or broken? In the second half of 2024, firms are having to deal with logistics network volatility. Heading into 2025, political and regulatory risks provide risks and opportunities for investors.
This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on the diversification benefits and limitations of a multi-asset, multi-manager approach to portfolio construction.
This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on the fundamentals of client discovery and formulating an Investment Policy Statement in the investment consulting context.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
While the majority underperform, there are still many, many managers that do outperform their relevant index over long periods. The rewards for good manager selection are real and worthwhile - if you have above average manager selection skills.
Economists are struggling to reconcile their upbeat views on the US economy with the angst of average Americans. The key measures of economic performance are almost perfect. But voters continue to cite the economy as a top issue.
This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on the process for the design of a strategic investment plan for a portfolio to meet client goals, that applies equally to a small retail client or a very large institutional client.
I was speaking to a new doctoral student whose thesis is on the role of risk profiling in the development of an investment strategy. This led us to discuss why risk profiling was important and the purpose of investment advice.
The Big Five model of personality traits remains the dominant framework in personality research. Increasingly, it appears that aspects of investor sentiment and decision-making can also be explained by Big Five personality traits.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on the use of returns-based multi-factor analysis to better understand the underlying drivers of a managed fund's return and risk over its life.
Many commentators have noticed the positive correlation between bonds and equities over the past few years and announced the end of bonds as a useful diversifier - often claiming "The 60/40 portfolio is dead, long live alternatives!".
The June 2024 farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation update is now available on the farrelly's subscriber area on Portfolio Construction Forum.
The June 2024 farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation update is now available on the farrelly's subscriber area on Portfolio Construction Forum.
Capital markets believe that interest rates are indeed on a downward path. Regulators would do well to get ahead of the next speculative cycle while they still can.
Highlight our upcoming live CE programs, and all of the complimentary on-demand CE-accredited resources published over recent months.
Investors must pay close attention to emergent supply chain disruption events, including those caused by mother nature. Four real-world examples reveal both exposure and impact of weather-related disruptions.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Listening to central bankers, one would think the recent bout of high inflation was merely an excusable post-pandemic forecasting error made under extreme uncertainty. But this presumes a level of central-bank independence that is simply unrealistic.
Private debt has grown in popularity as an alternative source of debt financing, with the asset class tripling in size since 2008. This self-paced, two-hour online short course equips you with the expertise to navigate private debt investment confidently across diverse market conditions.
It is well-established that investors and service providers should take human behaviour into account when making financial decisions. These papers look at how two techniques drawn from psychology - financial nudging and financial mindfulness - can influence investor behaviour.
This lecture instructs IMAC candidates on the characteristics and use of alternative assets in multi-asset portfolios.
When evaluating investment performance, we generally acknowledge a fundamental distinction between skill and luck. This research paper looks at the concept of “moral luck” and finds that the outcome of an investment recommendation may shape others’ evaluations of both the skill and the morality of the investment adviser.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
If governments are to be held responsible for investment and unemployment, they must control monetary policy. And, while central banks strive to maintain the appearance of independence, they often do what governments want.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
The dollar has strengthened sharply in recent months and a rising crescendo of apocalyptic financial talk threatens to spook markets. Can - and should - anything be done to head off the dollar's strength?
This Guide sets out a procedure to recommend financial products that are only available to Wholesale Clients including the method for classifying a client as a Wholesale Client and common misconceptions about providing advice to them.
We appoint active fund managers because we believe they will add value by outperforming the index, and we try to measure that value add as an indication of the manager's investment skill. But how good are the measures we use?
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
The idea that individuals are more sensitive to losses than to equivalent gains is critical in investment decision-making. Two recent papers highlight that loss aversion/tolerance is a more nuanced phenomenon than is commonly recognised.
Gold has returned to the international monetary system. Over 50 years ago, US President Richard Nixon "closed the gold window". But now, fiat money is being challenged and the price of gold has reached all-time highs.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
Three articles provide us with insights into the impact that the growth in passive management has had on the performance of active managers; the risks taken by active managers and the general efficiency of markets; and, the behaviour of markets.
Three issues are key to deciphering what 2024-25 will hold for the US economy, which is now the sole major engine of global growth. I will stick my neck out and offer some illustrative probabilities.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
The future state of the economy and markets depends, in part, on what people expect it will be. Understanding people's expectations, and how and why they form and revise them, has important implications for portfolio construction practice.
After 15 years of economic upheavals, from the European debt crisis to the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the European economy appears set to underperform in 2024. But are appearances deceiving?
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
At this year's China Development Forum - the highest-level annual meeting of senior Chinese policymakers and top CEOs, policymakers, and academics - discussion focused squarely on the risk of China falling into the middle-income trap.
In 1990, Towers Perrin started spruiking the modern-day investment mandate. I must admit the concept of making investment managers far more accountable seemed rather good. Unfortunately, it most likely left clients worse off.
With just about every equity index globally dominated by a handful of companies, indexed investors might soon discover they are overweight future failure.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
By all means, discuss geopolitical events and the likely investment implications. But you should then completely ignore those discussions and consciously exclude geopolitics from your investment decision-making process.
The Investment Management Analyst Certificate (IMAC) advances investment management analyst knowledge, skill and expertise in a definitive set of competencies necessary for building and/or advising on quality multi-manager portfolios. It is both a structured post-graduate certificate course in its own right, and the Australian-based Registered Education Program for the global Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) program.
We have entered a period of intensifying geopolitical rivalries and conflicts. If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November, the world will be even further destabilised.
The March 2024 farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation update is now available on the farrelly's subscriber area on Portfolio Construction Forum.
The March 2024 farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation update is now available on the farrelly's subscriber area on Portfolio Construction Forum.
There are a number of aspects to the farrelly's Investment Strategy service. To get an appreciation of the range of tools and uses, we suggest that you work through this two- to three-hour "Getting started" program. It's also a great resource to revisit from time to time, to make sure you're making the most of your farrelly's subscription.
There are a number of aspects to the farrelly's Investment Strategy service. To get an appreciation of the range of tools and uses, we suggest that you work through this two- to three-hour "Getting started" program. It's also a great resource to revisit from time to time, to make sure you're making the most of your farrelly's subscription.
Market cycles show there is a clear anomaly in the Senior Secured Loans space with record setting yields and compelling risk-adjusted returns.
Australia's residential vacancy rate is at a record low and net overseas migration at a record high. But, the banks can no longer participate in the market like they used to, providing greater opportunity for real estate private credit.
This paper provides a comprehensive review of the psychology of attention and its relationship to key economic concepts (utility, risk-taking, social preferences, and learning), and the emerging role of AI in the modern economy.
What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.
I was amazed several years ago to learn that the class I was teching believed that 90% of a fund's returns are due to asset allocation. Having once been a major promoter of this myth, it is important I contribute to its eradication.
Traditionally, these annual forecasts aim to predict near certainties. This year, the outlook seems a little clearer than it seemed in December 2002 – but not much.
Is there, as many predict, another financial crisis looming? The history of financial crises suggests that the preconditions are present. But this has been the case a few times since 2008. What is the reality?
Around this time a year ago, about 85% of economists and market analysts (including me) expected the US and global economy would suffer a recession. But the opposite mostly happened. One must approach any 2024 forecast with humility.
It's in the spirit of thinking differently and embracing uncertainty that I offer you this year's set of global developments to watch over the next five years.