There is a space in financial services that is often overshadowed by the noise of markets, products, and performance. It is the space where investing meets investors — the point where technical decisions collide with human consequences. This space is not defined by models or forecasts. It is defined by judgement, responsibility, and the way fiduciaries choose to show up for the people who rely on them. It is here, in this intersection, that the true work of a prudent adviser or consultant takes place.
The shift this week is subtle, but important. Markets are beginning to transition from a world where policy drives outcomes, to a world where physical constraints and geopolitical realities drive outcomes. The distinction matters.
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Following US President Trump ordering a strategic Bitcoin reserve be established, private companies, investment banks, and scholars have begun urging major central banks to do the same. The idea is not quite as far-fetched as it may seem.
Historically a feature of the medical and legal professions, oaths have become increasingly popular in promoting ethical practice in other occupations. The effectiveness in the financial advice context is the focus of this research paper.
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has forced markets to confront how dependent the global economy remains on physical infrastructure - shipping lanes, energy flows, and industrial supply chains. Yet equity indices have remained relatively resilient, suggesting investors still assume the disruption will prove temporary.
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Markets spent the week attempting to price a geopolitical shock whose macro consequences remain highly uncertain. The challenge is not predicting how the conflict evolves. It is recognising how shocks like this propagate through portfolios.
Fortunately, the Fed chair is not an absolute monarch. Warsh will have only one vote out of 12 on the FOMC. That is good news for markets, given how misguided some of his stated positions are.
Markets are not panicking. They are re-learning what uncertainty costs. The key signal is not that “something happened". It is that diversification is becoming more conditional. Those constructing portfolios need to be explicit about what they own, why they own it, and what they expect it to do when escalation risk becomes live.
Markets are not capitulating. They are re-calibrating. Yet beneath that surface stability, assumptions are being quietly rewritten. We are operating in a whole new world (again)!. Not because growth has collapsed. But because capital is being redeployed under a different set of structural constraints.
Markets are not breaking. They are repricing assumptions. What stands out most right now is not recession panic, nor speculative euphoria - but transition. The more useful question is not “Are we heading into a downturn?” It is: “What regime are we moving toward - and which portfolio assumptions quietly depend on the old one?”
The idea that we should just focus on long-term earnings growth and forget about value and dividends? It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts!
What defines the current environment is not fear, but discrimination. Markets are no longer rewarding participation by default. That shift from belief to verification may be the most important signal of all.
Whether markets' faith turns out to be well founded depends significantly on how Warsh handles rising bond-market risk. While reining in the Fed's balance sheet is a worthy long-run monetary-policy goal, now is not the time.
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Despite the US economy's strong performance in 2025 which is likely to continue in 2026, it is hard to escape the conclusion that, over the medium term, Trump's decisions over the past year will expose the US to massive risks.
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Together, these two articles shed light on important micro and macro challenges facing the growth of ethical responsibility in investment and wealth management.
2025 will likely go down in history as one of the most eventful, action-packed years of the 21st century. Here are 20 possibilities that should help you navigate uncertainty between now and 2031.
The future that emerges after 2025 depends crucially on the worldview we choose. Lamenting the polycrisis reinforces paralysis; embracing the polytunity encourages change.